Am I on Track for Retirement? A 20-Minute Self-Check
You don't need a crystal ball — you need four numbers and an honest half hour. Here's the same gap analysis planners charge for, in plain English.
Published April 20, 2026 · Updated June 15, 2026
The four numbers
Retirement readiness reduces to four inputs: what you've saved, what you save per year, how many years until retirement, and what you'll spend per year once there. Everything else — return assumptions, inflation, Social Security — refines the picture, but these four drive it.
Spending is the number people skip and the one that matters most. A useful starting estimate: 75–85% of current take-home spending, adjusted for a paid-off mortgage or new healthcare costs.
The quick math
Project your current savings plus future contributions at a conservative growth rate to your retirement date. Multiply your desired annual spending by 25 (the inverse of a 4% initial withdrawal rate) for a rough target nest egg. Subtract expected annual Social Security or pension income from spending first — it does a surprising amount of work.
If projected savings exceed the target, you're trending well. If there's a gap, you now know its size — which is the beginning of a plan, not a verdict.
Closing a gap: the five levers
Every retirement gap closes with some mix of five levers: save more, retire later, spend less in retirement, earn more on investments (carefully — this one has teeth), and claim Social Security strategically. Small moves on two or three levers usually beat a heroic move on one.
Working eighteen extra months, for example, simultaneously adds contributions, adds growth time, shortens the withdrawal period, and often increases Social Security — a quadruple effect no single lever matches.
Key takeaways
- Four numbers drive everything: saved, saving, years, spending
- Rough target: 25 × annual spending (after Social Security/pension income)
- A known gap is a plan waiting to happen, not a failure
- Combining small lever-pulls beats one heroic change